Christmas shopping is a beloved tradition throughout the world – and so is putting it off until the last possible minute. Or, at least, that's how it used to be. This year, however, Sensormatic Solutions global consumer survey found that shoppers around the world are starting their Christmas shopping earlier than ever. Of course, there will still be plenty of last-minute scrambling, but globally, November is shaping up to be the busiest shopping month of the 2021 festive season. This is not just due to Black Friday; in fact, in many countries, retailers' busiest days will happen in mid-November – or even earlier.

What does this mean for retailers as they prepare for the festive season ahead? Where do today's consumers plan to spend their money, amid so many economic uncertainties? Let's unpack all of that – and more.

Black Friday has become a global holiday – and for good reason: it makes our predicted busiest days list for countries around the world and is still the busiest shopping day in North America. In fact, it looks as though it will be even busier this year than last: 45% of North American consumers said they plan to shop in-store this Black Friday weekend, compared to 30% last year.

However, more consumers will start shopping before Black Friday. In China, for example, the Christmas shopping season will start in early November with the e-commerce juggernaut that has become the biggest shopping period in the world, in terms of revenue: Singles Day. And in North America, consumers will start shopping well before Black Friday. In fact, 51% of U.S. shoppers started before November, compared to 43% in 2020.

Canadian consumers, on the other hand, are more likely to stick to tradition and delay their Christmas shopping until later in the season. Just 36% of Canadians said they would start before November. Globally, 28% of Europeans said they plan to start before November, and 17% of Latin American shoppers said the same. In fact, Brazilians are the least likely to start before November, with just 13% saying they would start shopping in October.

However, even with more shoppers starting early, November will still prove to be a very busy shopping month around the globe. In fact, in every country we surveyed, more respondents said they would start shopping in November than any other month.

Ultimately, this – albeit gradual – shift to earlier Christmas shopping means retailers will need to consider stocking festive goods earlier than in previous years. While the busiest period of Christmas shopping remains essentially unchanged, the shoppers retailers see in September and October may already be doing their Christmas shopping – and as we'll see in the next section, that may be all the Christmas shopping some of those customers will be doing in 2021.

In spite of economic uncertainty and logistical challenges, some industry analysts still expect retailers' registers to overflow in certain regions this festive season. In North America, for instance, the National Retail Foundation anticipates spending this festive season will be up by as much as 10.5% over 2020, while more conservative reports from Bain, Mastercard, and Deloitte each predict growth of 7-9%. And China’s Singles Day is expected to bring in $85 billion this year – doubling the gross merchandise value of 2019 – with an estimated 900 million shoppers and 290,000 participating brands.

That's great news for retailers – and we certainly hope it comes true. It is important to note, though, that the findings from our survey offer a different perspective.

Our study found that, globally, 58% of consumers said they plan to spend at least somewhat less than last year. Thirty-three percent plan to spend the same as they did in 2020, and just 9% said they plan to spend more. North American consumers were most likely (12%) to say they plan to spend more, while just 9% of Europeans agreed. The situation in Latin America is the most pessimistic for retailers, with only 7% saying they plan to spend at least somewhat more this festive season.

With most consumers aiming to spend less this year, retailers can win new shoppers with savvy promotions that help to save money.

They also need to bear in mind that consumers who are shopping on a budget are likely to buy fewer but more meaningful things. This means they are not just shopping for a great deal; they are also shopping for a thoughtful purchase. Instead of buying multiple gifts, they are likely to buy a single, meaningful item, and they may be more disappointed than usual when an item they have had their hearts set on is out of stock.

When shoppers do spend, it is primarily on clothing and garments. That category was the clear leader across the board in every country we surveyed, with a global average of 68% of consumers including clothing in their top three target categories for spending this year. American shoppers were least likely (48%) to target clothing this festive season, while Colombians were most likely (88%) to do so.

Electronics were a distant second (40%) globally, followed closely by gift cards (39%) and toys, books and other media (34%). On the opposite end of the spectrum, experiential gifts were the least popular (7%), though home décor came perilously close (8%) to being the equally least-desired gift category this festive season.

In Latin America, clothing is most popular (85%), followed by health and beauty products (44%) and electronics (38%). In Europe, clothing (60%) is followed by toys, books and other media (46%) and electronics (35%). North American shoppers, on the other hand, showed the most diverse set of preferences, with clothing (52%) being followed by electronics and gift cards (both 39%), then toys, books and other media (34%).

For retailers, the meaning here is clear: if your stores sell the most-wanted items this festive season, getting that stock to stores in the right quantities should be a priority, as should managing that stock with sophisticated inventory intelligence systems and protecting it with the latest loss prevention technology. After all, having these items in stock – and keeping them there – can mean the difference between a satisfied shopper and a disgruntled customer, lost to the competition.

Consumers are shopping earlier this year, but they are largely doing so with tightened budgets. That probably means shoppers will be buying fewer, more meaningful things, giving retailers fewer chances to create exceptional Christmas shopping experiences. To keep pace with this shift, retailers should consider implementing or improving stock management and loss prevention systems and processes. After all, if you only have one chance to create Christmas magic for a consumer, you had better make it count.

To help you make the most of the 2021 festive season, we have compiled a wealth of resources:

• Schedule smartly: download our global guide to the 2021 festive season's busiest shopping days.
• Understand your store traffic and how to optimise your locations for in-store and omnichannel shopping: get your copy of our 2021 Christmas Guide to In-Store Success.
• Protect your merchandise and your bottom line: review our 2021 Loss Prevention Checklist.

Make sure you read the rest of our 2021 Global Christmas Retail series. If you missed the first instalment on the new realities of in-store shopping, you can view it here, and make sure you read the second instalment covering key changes and customer preferences when it comes to omnichannel shopping this festive season .

Also, please follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter, using #SensormaticHolidays2021 for the latest updates and information concerning the season.